How Russia’s Military Is Positioned to Threaten Ukraine







Other military or air installations

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukranian border.

Forces deployed north of

Ukraine could stretch

the country’s forces thin and

threaten its capital, Kyiv.

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Nearly 20,000 troops are near two

breakaway provinces, where Ukraine

has been locked in a grinding

war with Russian-backed

separatists since 2014.

ukraine 1050

Other military or air installations

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukranian border.

Forces deployed north of

Ukraine could stretch

the country’s forces thin and

threaten its capital, Kyiv.

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Nearly 20,000 troops are near two

breakaway provinces, where Ukraine

has been locked in a grinding

war with Russian-backed

separatists since 2014.

ukraine 720

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukranian border.

Forces deployed north of

Ukraine could stretch

the country’s forces thin and

threaten its capital, Kyiv.

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Nearly 20,000 troops are near two

breakaway provinces, where Ukraine

has been locked in a grinding

war with Russian-backed

separatists since 2014.

ukraine 450

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukranian border.

Forces deployed north of

Ukraine could stretch

the country’s forces thin and

threaten its capital, Kyiv.

Nearly 20,000 troops are near

two breakaway provinces, where

Ukraine has been locked in a

grinding war with Russian-backed

separatists since 2014.

ukraine 330

Around 100,000 Russian troops

have been deployed near the

Ukranian border.


Source: Rochan Consulting. Yelnya image from Planet Labs; December 29, 2021. Novoozerne image from Maxar; October 18, 2021.

The New York Times

A build-up of Russian forces near the border with Ukraine has raised concerns among Western and Ukrainian officials that the Kremlin might be preparing for significant military action, possibly an invasion. This map, compiled by The New York Times, shows troops, tanks and heavy artillery moving into positions that threaten to widen the conflict in Ukraine’s east as well as potentially open a new front on Ukraine’s northern border, closer to the capital, Kyiv.

Russia currently has about 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border, according to Ukrainian and Western officials. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the Kremlin has drawn up plans for a military operation involving up to 175,000 troops that could begin in the coming weeks. While it is not clear whether President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has decided to launch an attack, analysts say the country is well on its way toward constructing the architecture needed for a significant military intervention in Ukraine.

On Monday, representatives from the United States and Russia will meet in Geneva for talks aimed at de-escalating the crisis. Mr. Putin has said that Russia wants what he calls security guarantees, which would, among other things, bar the United States and NATO from expanding eastward into regions the Kremlin deems as within its sphere of influence.

This map represents a snapshot of current Russian positions, as well as broad estimates of the number of troops and kinds of equipment deployed within striking distance of Ukraine. It is based on information obtained by Ukrainian and Western officials as well as independent military analysts and satellite imagery.

Much of the build-up so far, according to officials and military analysts, has involved troops and equipment that take time to deploy, including tanks and heavy armor, some of which have traveled by train from bases as far away as Siberia.

Before launching a significant military operation, however, Russia will likely need to deploy reserve soldiers and logistical infrastructure, like field hospitals, that currently appear to be missing from positions near Ukraine, analysts say. These elements along with additional troops could be deployed rapidly should a decision be made to attack.

Much of the attention so far has been directed at the build-up of forces near two breakaway provinces in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, where since 2014 the Ukrainian military has been at war with Russian-backed separatists. The separatist forces, which include Russian troops and Ukrainian fighters opposed to Kyiv’s rule, amount to about 30,000, according to an assessment by the Ukrainian military.


Eastern Ukraine





donetsk 1050

Other military or air installations

Luhansk

Motorized infantry unit

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Military analysts say Russian troops

deployed to Ukraine’s east could

be used to seize additional territory

from Ukrainian control, beyond

what has already been taken by

Russian-backed separatists.

32,000 troops

in Eastern Ukraine

Donetsk

Motorized infantry unit

Persianovskiy

Two tank units

Motorized infantry unit

Rostov-on-Don

Motorized infantry unit

Artillery unit

Southern Military District

Army Corps

donetsk 720

Other military or air installations

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Luhansk

Motorized infantry unit

Military analysts say Russian troops

deployed to Ukraine’s east could

be used to seize additional territory

from Ukrainian control, beyond

what has already been taken by

Russian-backed separatists.

32,000 troops

in Eastern Ukraine

Donetsk

Motorized infantry unit

Persianovskiy

Two tank units

Motorized infantry unit

Rostov-on-Don

Motorized infantry unit

Artillery unit

Southern Military District

Army Corps

donetsk 450

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

Military analysts say Russian troops deployed to Ukraine’s east could be used to seize additional territory from Ukrainian control, beyond what has already been taken by

Russian-backed separatists.

32,000 troops

in Eastern Ukraine

donetsk 330

Approximate line

separating Ukrainian and

Russian-backed forces.

32,000 troops

in Eastern Ukraine


Since the start of 2021, Russia has moved an additional five battalion tactical groups into the border area near Luhansk and Donetsk, including about 5,000 soldiers sent to reinforce the 12,000 or so stationed there permanently, according to Ukrainian authorities. Just as significant, according to officials and military analysts, are the forces massing north of Ukraine in areas such as Klintsy, at the point where the Ukrainian, Russian and Belarusian borders meet. These positions are within easy striking distance of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.


Possible threats to Kyiv





kyiv 1050

Other military or air installations

Yelnya

13–14 batallion tactical groups

Artillery unit

Missile unit

Rocket unit

Tank unit

Klintsy

Two motorized infantry units

Pogonovo

Rocket unit

Motorized infantry unit

Two tank units

Two batallion tactical groups

Marshala Zhukova

Rocket unit

In a worst-case scenario for

Ukraine, Russian forces

could invade from the north

and east and threaten the

capital, Kyiv.

Soloti

Tank unit

Two motorized infantry units

Boguchar

Motorized infantry unit

Artillery unit

kyiv 720

Yelnya

13–14 batallion tactical groups

Artillery unit

Missile unit

Rocket unit

Tank unit

Other military or air installations

Klintsy

Two motorized infantry units

Two batallion tactical groups

Pogonovo

Rocket unit

Motorized infantry unit

Two tank units

Marshala Zhukova

Rocket unit

In a worst-case scenario for

Ukraine, Russian forces

could invade from the north

and east and threaten the

capital, Kyiv.

Soloti

Tank unit

Two motorized infantry units

Boguchar

Motorized infantry unit

Artillery unit

kyiv 450

In a worst-case scenario for

Ukraine, Russian forces

could invade from the north

and east and threaten the

capital, Kyiv.

kyiv 330

In a worst-case scenario for

Ukraine, Russian forces

could invade from the north

and east and threaten the

capital, Kyiv.